They say there's blood in the streets but really that stimulus pump was so hard it'd take another 15% drop just to get the back to pre-covid levels. As though the pandemic, and subsequent supply shocks, and labour-force-long-covid, and energy-wars, and sanctions, and potential nuclear Armageddon, all didn't affect prices at all.

15% drop to get to that.

Humm. Curious.

When the Doge barks with quarterly gains, bitcoin-price changes direction.

Does Doge wag the Bitcoin tail?

When will Doge woof again?

@Paygan have your colleagues noticed this phenomenon? What does it tell us about the relationship between Doge and Bitcoin?

Trip to Portugal was really good fun. So many friends around, lovely trip to a beach and a large party at the villa and a trip to a waterpark.

Flew by quickly. Very glad to catch up with friends that the pandemic kept apart for so long.

Here's a couple of critters I saw, and a landscape shot.

I am now covered in insect bites and apparently have a cracked rib but it's still worth it. Probably didn't get covid at least. Coughing through the cracked rib would be no fun at all.

I went to a water-park on Thursday. Good fun with friends heading up the stairs then sliding back down again.

The last one really winded me, face-down, tobogganing through the tube, skipping along the water at the end.

Flew home with an increasingly hurt ribs that have become more and more troublesome since.

Seems likely I cracked or at least badly bruised them.

Can't really bandage or split a chest while also disabling breathing so seems there's not much the health systems can do other than offer pain killers and suggest staying mostly upright.

Three to six weeks of that they reckon.

Hope it's the low-end, I can't go to Glasto if it's still like this in five weeks.

After the dotcom bubble, nasdaq fell by 80%.

The banking crisis dropped it’s price 50%.

The obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, has so far dropped it 20%.

It takes falling another 30% from here to go back to before-covid prices as if nothing had happened.

Does nasdaq reflect genuine world economic prospects, modulo it’s own growth?

What is a reasonable reflection of the reality of this disease and consequences?

Are the world’s prospects really going up? Will they keep doing so?

Show thread

How about the Nasdaq? That’s doing okay today but is that the bottom? How well is it’s price reflecting the reality of everyone having long-covid at some point in their lives and supply shocks and stagflation and energy-wars and possible nuclear armageddon?

It dropped 30%, got artificially inflated with stimulus and and quantitative easing by 150%, and then in response to the obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, it has dropped like 20% from the inflated high.

Does that reflect reality? It was already at the top of the channel.

It is still 60% ABOVE the original market-estimate of covid’s affect before the stimulus, which would also match the bottom of the trend-line for when the world has these regular crises.

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Bitcoin dominance went up about 8% on the collapse of the shit-coin, but a total of 45% hardly reflects the difference between the players in the casino and the gambling chips they use to play.

The casino remains open, people are still falling for the scammers and the shitcoins and the ponzi schemes.

Play in the casino if you want, I do. But even when you win it’s about as moral and difficult as taking money from the fish in a poker game.

Show thread

Bitcoin
Crash cos of covid, then pump when the stimulus arrives and the governments push prices up with money-printing, giving from the poor to the rich.

Crashing again when the reality of everyone eventually getting long-covid dawns, and the supply shocks from it, and the inflation stimulus stops.

Then crashing again when the the stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon starts.

After the 2017 bubble, BTC fell by 80%.

The obviousness of supply-shocks and long-covid for everyone and stagflation and recession and energy-wars and possible nuclear Armageddon, has so far dropped it 20%.

It takes falling another 35% from here to go back to before-bubble prices,

Falling 70 to get to before covid prices as if nothing had happened.

Does bitcoin reflect genuine world economic prospects, modulo it’s own growth?

What is a reasonable reflection of the reality of this disease and consequences?

Show thread

In the “crypto” casino, another shit-coin has collapsed to zero again.

Someone noticed that they could do to Luna/UST what Soros did to the bank of England on Black Wednesday and make billions of dollars for themselves while wrecking the backers, so they did.

The rest of crypto is crashing coz of general panic. The ones which are less obviously stupid are crashing a bit less, bitcoin dominance is up. It’s happened against a generally negative background in all the markets, what with the energy-wars and sanctions and the coming supply shocks and energy price-hikes and inflation and stagnation. So the nasdaq and S&P are also dropping.

Do any of these prices reflect actual world economic prospects?

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This month's email newsletter is on the way to all the amazing and incredible people who asked for it. You should join 'em.

Or you could read it here if you prefer I guess, but that's way less cool and trendy.

dalliance.net/vPre2/april-2022

Featuring:

* New Cartoon

* Lots of Fedi/Twitter meta

* Animation

* Squirrel sex

* Master Dater

* "Around the fediverse"

Did you make the cut to the around the fediverse section? Maybe you did. You'll have to check.

My new is ready. I made it especially for you , it's only two minutes long.

Observers Episode Seven: Musk Social.

The aliens discover a planet where the means of communication is monopolised and manipulated by the establishment class.

It's about and

You can check it out here, either in normal flat-screen, or in 360 3d .

starshipsd.com/observers/musks

An image from today's work. The moment when the cops start shooting at the heroes during the car-chase and the driver shouts "duck" as the windscreen shatters.

Spring is here and the squirrels are fucking in the garden. They don't seem to be too fussed which one mounts the other. Keep swapping over. Nice one squirrels.

The handover to a new phone is when you use the old phone to take photos of the new phone.

New one is looking fly.

He paces back and forth like a soldier, up and down the square, pretending that payment networks were invented in the 1940s with the Diner's Club Card and explaining how banking boomer's-bucks work: It's all old tech where one boomer calls another to check if it's okay and then later squaring up and all charging 1% and only really finally settling months later.

He reckons it's better to do it without the middle-men, and without the reversibility of boring granddad money. Use the network that's open, global, uncensorable, unfreezable, bearer, cash-final, cheaper, faster and inclusive.

Then the list of people who have custodial Strike accounts now, who are mostly letting Jack take care of their bitcoin in Jack's centralized wallets like newbies. Mostly not even keeping a bitcoin balance let alone taking custody.

His shtick is definitely that if you charge dollars and pay in dollars then there's no tax-event in all the money-transit transactions of switching from dollars to bitcoin and bitcoin back to dollars.

I mean.... We could make a tax system that way but that is not how the current UK tax system works I don't think?

Which might be why Brits still can't get Strike?

If you have a dollar-balance on a centralzied Strike app then you can transfer it to another person's centralzied dollar balance account on their Strike app "via bitcoin" I guess? And lots of shops have centralized strike accounts now.

It's all about how the human regulation interfaces with the language of the bits moving around on computer networks in the end. I think Strike are doing good work to figure out how the hell all this should be regulated and are pushing for an interoperable network.

We need to get off of oil which means we need to get off of the petro-dollar. What do we replace it with? A trustless, permissionless, free and unowned one? Or should the world use the one run by America based on oil?

I'm open to any other ideas?

youtube.com/watch?v=l6YZrCyhmI (8 hours in)

The March digest is here on time! It's being emailed to everyone who is lovely enough to subscribe. You all rock.

The rest of you lackadaisical holdouts can read it here:
dalliance.net/vPre2/march-2022

Featuring treasure chests full of chocolate, foreign travel, job-sackings and city-sackings and financial-hackings.

Also a new section "around the fediverse", best of my boosts.

Everyone can see is broke and wants to fix it.

But even he can't fix it because the problem is that it's a big centralized target for legislation, regulation, trolls, mobs and cancel-warriors etc. and you can't fix that by buying it.

The fact you can buy it or otherwise take control of it is the problem.

Somehow the agrees with me in this week's show...

RT: boing.world/@wordcloudtarot/10

wordcloudtarot.com/readings/20

Once again I made a tarot show that I'd quote-tweet from my alt at @wordcloudtarot if I could but just have to quote instead since I can't.

--

This week and have visited tropical islands and as a result each island in turn decided to end the monarchy.

So should the UK end the ? Adam does a five minute reading to find out.

wordcloudtarot.com/readings/20

Refilled my treasure chest but it's easter so I bought too much stuff and now I can't close it to put the time-lock on.

Without the time-line, the problem will probably evaporate soon enough I guess.

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Adam Dalliance's choices:

Boing.World

A gateway into the global open conversation in the fediverse for Boing folks and anyone they know.